China, which has the world’s largest population, is expected to abolish its birth control policy this year. This is because the birth rate has continued to fall even after removing the one-child policy in 2016. The key for China, which has adopted the dual circulation development strategy centered on domestic consumption against the U.S. strategic blockade, is to maintain the number of people that will support domestic demand.
The reason why China abolished the one-child policy is that it had caused adverse social side effects. Socially, the atmosphere of aiding abortion was rampant, and unavoidable second children were neglected in public education and social benefits because they could not register. As the number of people has also decreased sharply, China’s working population has decreased since 2011. The one-child policy has made it difficult for the younger generation to lead economic growth and take responsibility for supporting parents and grandparents. The burden of two-on-one pension subscribers will increase to one-on-one in 2050, which will increase the economic burden to the point where one worker has to support one pensioner.
In response, the Chinese government belatedly abolished the one-child policy introduced in 1976. It announced the two-child policy in 2016, but the number of newborns in China did not increase. China then allowed up to three in five years.
On the other hand, India has not introduced birth control policies for religious reasons. Still, more and more states have recently introduced birth control policies. Uttar Pradesh, India’s most densely populated state, is preparing a bill that disqualifies civil servants and prevents them from receiving various government subsidies if they have more than three children. Also, they are giving free sterility surgeries and considering incentives such as reducing property taxes when acquiring real estate if only two children are born.
Nevertheless, experts say that India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2027.